From past to a precarious future: climate change threatens protected Mexican tarantulas
Abstract
Climate change has an impact on the distribution of numerous species around the world, which for many signifies an increase in the risk of extinction. Human activities, especially the pet trade, often have a negative impact on tarantula spiders. Many species of Mexican tarantulas are considered endangered, such as those that belong to the Tliltocatl complex. Using two datasets containing individuals determined anatomically and/or genetically to be Tliltocatl vagans (Ausserer 1875), we developed distribution models using the MaxEnt algorithm considering past, present, and future climate scenarios. Past scenarios range from the last interglacial period through to the middle Holocene period and future scenarios consider the RCP 4.5 and the RCP 8.5. Our current distribution model of T. vagans covers the known distribution of the genus Tliltocatl. During the last interglaciation (LIG) period, the modelled distribution of this genus was extensive in Central and South America, before being markedly restricted during the last glaciation event. The current distribution is also more concentrated in southern Mexico compared to the initial distribution during the LIG. Future modelled distributions based on the increased temperature scenarios show a drastic decrease in suitable areas, with potential extinction risks in the western part of their current distribution. Given the current context of increasing human activity in the southern regions of Mexico and the future effects of climate change, there is great cause for concern for the conservation of Mexican tarantulas, particularly if no measures are taken to ensure their survival.
Hénaut, Y., Machkour-M’Rabet, S., Shillington, C. et al. From past to a precarious future: climate change threatens protected Mexican tarantulas. J Insect Conserv 29, 54 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10841-025-00686-4
